Fitch Solutions predicts victory for NDC in the 2024 General Elections

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Fitch Solutions has predicted that based on data, science, and the art of elections, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), led by former President John Mahama, will win Ghana’s December 2024 elections.

The publication for this analysis date Friday, April 5, 2024.

“We anticipate that the opposition National Democratic Congress WILL WIN the upcoming December 2024 general elections in Ghana, following two terms of New Patriotic Party rule.

“The rising perceptions of economic mismanagement in Ghana due to persistently high inflation and weakened living standards will erode support for the incumbent New Patriotic Party in the elections.

“We believe that social stability risks will be limited in the run-up to the vote given Ghana’s entrenched democracy and history of peaceful transfers of power.”

Key View

1. We anticipate that the opposition National Democratic Congress will win the upcoming December 2024 general elections in Ghana, following two terms of New Patriotic Party rule.

2. The rising perceptions of economic mismanagement in Ghana due to persistently high inflation and weakened living standards will erode support for the incumbent New Patriotic Party in the elections.

3. We believe that social stability risks will be limited in the run-up to the vote given GhanaaEURtms entrenched democracy and history of peaceful transfers of power.

“We anticipate that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), led by former President John Mahama, will win Ghana’s December 2024 elections.

“Our forecast is informed by the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP)aEURtms waning popularity, attributed to rising popular perceptions of economic mismanagement and the erosion of real household incomes over the past two years.

“Notably, inflation averaged 40.3% across 2023 – the highest rate since 1996-largely due to the sharp depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar (the cedi has depreciated by 21.2% against the dollar since January 2023).

“In a survey by Global Info Analytics, 65% of respondents cited the economy as their foremost concern, and it is our view that the NDC is strategically positioned to secure victory in the upcoming general elections, particularly given that 41% of those surveyed by Afrobarometer, a pan-African research institution, expressed strong disapproval of the current members of parliament.

Economic Concerns Will Dominate The December Vote Decision

Ghana aEUR" Consumer Price Index, % y-o-y (LHC) & Key Issues For Voters, % of total (RHC)

Check the attached image for the graphical representation of the data